Mining ETFs: Implications For Gold As Well As Hard Asset Producers
Most of the articles that you read — most of the programs that you watch — have instructed you to forget about stocks. “Sell in May” worked, so… see you in October.
Similarly, gold bears have successfully squashed gold bugs. Very few seem to tout buying SPDR Gold (GLD) these days, as it is quickly being branded as yesteryear’s safe haven.
So if stocks are a bad idea in times of enormous uncertainty, and if gold is on its way down to $1000 per ounce (not up to $2000 per ounce), why would anyone be interested in Market Vectors Gold Miners (GDX)? Perhaps because its price ratio (GDX:SPY) has risen above a key 50-day moving average for the first time since last September; GDX finally has a bit of momentum.
Purchasing miners during a commodities-led economic slowdown may seem foolhardy. Then again, if the smartest businesspeople open shop during a recession, is it possible that the smartest investors are buying hard asset producers in the middle of global growth uncertainty?
In truth, the phenomenon has been confined to gold producers alone. The more diversified SPDR Metals & Mining (XME) isn’t confirming a broader trend.
It follows that the bounce higher in Gold Miners (GDX) may have far more to do with an expectation of widespread central bank easing. When it happens — when central banks around the world coordinate rate reductions and de facto money printing to help ease the pain in Europe – gold should recover some bullish momentum. Higher metal prices… higher mining profits.
Nevertheless, the SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) would probably be the safer selection. There are many times in the history of the Gold Miners (GDX) when it failed to deliver on rising metal prices.
Source: ETF Expert